Politics

Trump Just Made Insane Claim That He’s More Popular Than Obama, Twitter Disagrees…

“Just hit 50% in the Rasmussen Poll,” President Trump tweeted earlier this morning, adding, “much higher than President Obama at same point.”

“With all of the phony stories and Fake News, it’s hard to believe! Thank you America, we are doing Great Things.”

Trump makes a good point. Given all the scandalous news surrounding the president, a 50% approval rating is hard to believe. It is even harder to believe if you read any other polls, which have the president’s approval rating closer to 40%.

Taking into account the new Rasmussen poll, the polling aggregate at RealClear Politics estimates Trump’s approval rating at 42.5%. Over at Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, Trump sits at 40.6%.

What accounts for the discrepancy? The truth could be that Rasmussen is simply a biased pollster. FiveThirtyEight gives them a rating of C+, accounting for an average two-point bias in favor of Republicans. Back in 2010, Silver wrote a piece on Rasmussen clarifying his methodology for exploring a possible bias. Silver points out that the pollster has a particular “knack for issuing polls at times which tend to dovetail with conservative media narratives.”

An Ipsos poll, which Silver gives an A- rating, puts Trump at 40% approval. A poll from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal put Trump’s approval at 39%.

Last summer, Politifact dedicated an article to a similar poll from Rasmussen that issued a questionable result. Trump lauded the poll, and tweeted about it, again comparing his approval rating favorably to Obama’s at the same time during his administration. The Pulitzer-prize winning outlet concluded that “Trump has engaged in some serious cherry-picking.” They rated Trump’s claim about his approval rating “Mostly False.”

Similar to his relationships with many of his cabinet members, the 45th President has a love/hate relationship with polls. In the past, Trump has called his discouraging poll numbers “fake news.”

“The Fake News refuses to talk about how Big and how Strong our BASE is,” the president tweeted in December of last year. “They show Fake Polls just like they report Fake News.”

How long Trump can continue to exaggerate the facts of reality remain to be seen. Liberals and progressives should remember that Nate Silver gave Clinton a more than 70% chance of beating Trump the day of the election, a confidence that may had led some to believe they could stay home on election day.

Twitter was quick to respond:

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